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Abstract Permafrost thaw and thermokarst development pose urgent challenges to Arctic communities, threatening infrastructure and essential services. This study examines the reciprocal impacts of permafrost degradation and infrastructure in Point Lay (Kali), Alaska, drawing on field data from ∼60 boreholes, measured and modeled ground temperature records, remote sensing analysis, and community interviews. Field campaigns from 2022–2024 reveal widespread thermokarst development and ground subsidence driven by the thaw of ice-rich permafrost. Borehole analysis confirms excess-ice contents averaging ∼40%, with syngenetic ice wedges extending over 12 m deep. Measured and modeled ground temperature data indicate a warming trend, with increasing mean annual ground temperatures and active layer thickness (ALT). Since 1949, modeled ALTs have generally deepened, with a marked shift toward consistently thicker ALTs in the 21st century. Remote sensing shows ice wedge thermokarst expanded from <5% in 1949 to >60% in developed areas by 2019, with thaw rates increasing tenfold between 1974 and 2019. In contrast, adjacent, undisturbed tundra exhibited more consistent thermokarst expansion (∼0.2% yr⁻¹), underscoring the amplifying role of infrastructure, surface disturbance, and climate change. Community interviews reveal the lived consequences of permafrost degradation, including structural damage to homes, failing utilities, and growing dependence on alternative water and wastewater strategies. Engineering recommendations include deeper pile foundations, targeted ice wedge stabilization, aboveground utilities, enhanced snow management strategies, and improved drainage to mitigate ongoing infrastructure issues. As climate change accelerates permafrost thaw across the Arctic, this study highlights the need for integrated, community-driven adaptation strategies that blend geocryological research, engineering solutions, and local and Indigenous knowledge. 

Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century. 

Abstract The Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea‐ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea‐level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non‐linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea‐level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low‐lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort. 

Abstract The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates the rapid advancement of understanding and the incorporation of lakes on both landscape and global scales. Three fields driving innovation within winter limnology that we address here are autonomous real‐time in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling. The recent progress in low‐power in situ sensing and data telemetry allows continuous tracing of under‐ice processes in selected lakes as well as the development of global lake observational networks. Remote sensing offers consistent monitoring of numerous systems, allowing limnologists to ask certain questions across large scales. Models are advancing and historically come in different types (process‐based or statistical data‐driven), with the recent technological advancements and integration of machine learning and hybrid process‐based/statistical models. Lake ice modeling enhances our understanding of lake dynamics and allows for projections under future climate warming scenarios. To encourage the merging of technological innovation within limnological research of the less‐studied winter period, we have accumulated both essential details on the history and uses of contemporary sampling, remote sensing, and modeling techniques. We crafted 100 questions in the field of winter limnology that aim to facilitate the cross‐pollination of intensive and extensive modes of study to broaden knowledge of the winter period. 

Abstract Riverbank erosion in yedoma regions strongly affects landscape evolution, biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and organic and nutrient fluxes to the Arctic Ocean. Since 2006, we have studied the 35‐m‐high Itkillik River yedoma bluff in northern Alaska, whose retreat rate during 1995–2010 was up to 19 m/yr, which is among the highest rates worldwide. This study extends our previous observations of bluff evolution and shows that average bluff‐top retreat rates decreased from 8.7–10.0 m/yr during 2011–2014 to 4.5–5.8 m/yr during 2015–2019, and bluff‐base retreat rates for the same time period decreased from 4.7–7.5 m/yr to 1.3–1.7 m/yr, correspondingly. Bluff evolution initially involves rapid fluvio‐thermal erosion at the base and block collapse, following by slowdown in river erosion and continuing thermal denudation of the retreating headwall with formation of baydzherakhs. Eventually, input of sediment and water from the headwall diminishes, vegetation develops, and slope gradually stabilizes. The step change in the fluvial–geomorphic system has resulted in a 60% decline in the volumetric mobilization of sediment and organic carbon between 2011 and 2019. Our findings stress the importance of sustained observations at key permafrost region study sites to elucidate critical information related to past and potential landscape evolution in the Arctic.